The Nifty doesn’t owe you a rebound
The Nifty has returned 6.6% a year for five years. The chart that promises a rebound shows up just as clearly in fake markets that cannot rebound. Meanwhile, earnings rose 81% and the P/E fell from 27 to 19.
A bonus and a split are the same thing. Until you sell.
Bonus and split do the same thing to your holding. Same share count after, same price, same stake in the same company. They also do the same thing to your P&L, right up until you sell. Then they diverge, by…
The advice you’re getting may not be replicable
Thousands of Indian investors borrowed early, concentrated hard and held through the falls. You have only ever heard from the ones it worked for. A look at why the origin stories of famous investors are poor instructions, and the three questions to ask before copying any of them.
Why India’s hottest IPOs pay retail investors the least
India’s IPO market has one reliable trade, and it belongs to whoever applies for the right issues, not whoever applies for the biggest ones. Across 182 mainboard listings from 2019 to 2023 (capped at 2023 so that 3 year returns…
Most Stocks Lose. A Few Make Everything. What That Means for How You Invest.
Hendrik Bessembinder asked a deceptively simple question of US stocks: do they actually beat Treasury bills? The answer, for most of them, was no. We ran the same test on the Indian market with an equal weight assigned to each…
Stop Looking for Unbiased Advice. Start Looking for Aligned Advice.
Everyone advising you how to invest sits on a payoff structure that shapes what they say. The question is not whether they are biased — everyone is. The question is which direction the bias runs, and whether it points toward your interest or away from it. Cynicism is not a strategy. When you opt out of all advice, you do not escape the payoff structure — you just hide whose interest you have defaulted to.
The India AI Trade Is a Global AI Trade
India's AI proxies, fibre, power and electronics, ran 100 to 450% on the global capex cycle. On Monday they fell with Samsung and Korea while the Nifty barely moved. A note on what these stocks actually are.
The velocity ceiling: why an Indian melt-up won’t look like Taiwan’s
The Nifty cannot melt up the way Taiwan's market just did, and the reason is the same thing that keeps it from blowing up.
News & Noise
A short game about trading the news. 12 real headlines, 12 real market reactions, your portfolio on every call. Takes about 8 minutes.