The India AI Trade Is a Global AI Trade
India's AI proxies, fibre, power and electronics, ran 100 to 450% on the global capex cycle. On Monday they fell with Samsung and Korea while the Nifty barely moved. A note on what these stocks actually are.
Pratik
Quant portfolio manager with a decade in systematic investing. Writing about markets and money for investors who think before they act.
The velocity ceiling: why an Indian melt-up won’t look like Taiwan’s
The Nifty cannot melt up the way Taiwan's market just did, and the reason is the same thing that keeps it from blowing up.
News & Noise
A short game about trading the news. 12 real headlines, 12 real market reactions, your portfolio on every call. Takes about 8 minutes.
The Legibility Trap
Why retail investors fixate on fees and taxes, and miss what actually moves their returns
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The thinking says high-flying stocks crack first in a correction. The latest fall in Indian equities says otherwise. The 240 NSE stocks that had run up the most going in had a median return of around −9.5%, almost four points shallower than the Nifty's −13.7% and shallower than every other decile.
Volatility is not risk. It only feels like risk
Modern Portfolio Theory taught a generation of investors that risk equals volatility. That conflation is fine for a 60-year-old living off their portfolio. For a 30-year-old with three decades of compounding ahead, it is one of the most expensive ideas in personal finance.
Why every retirement number is wrong
Money is not a spreadsheet problem. The conversation keeps pretending it is.
The factor that won, and what it cost
Most equity investors think they own "the market." They actually own a factor. Over 21 years on Nifty 500 data, the gap between the best and worst factor turned ₹1 lakh into either ₹52 lakhs or ₹13 lakhs. The interesting part is not which factor won. It is what each factor put its investor through to get there.
Why retail investors keep buying tops and selling bottoms
Equity funds delivered 19% CAGR over 20 years. The average investor in those same funds earned 14%. That 5 percentage point gap is not a fees problem. It is not a fund selection problem. It is a behaviour problem — and the data makes it impossible to ignore.
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We tested 835 overlapping 5-year periods on Nifty 500 data. At every holdback ratio, the Buy the Dip SIP loses to a flat SIP. The more you hold back, the more you lose. The dumb SIP wins because it never hesitates.